So various reports today are saying:
- Almeida very doubtful for Giro
- Landa confirmed out of Giro
- Carapaz likely out of Giro
Bit of a shame. I hope the Giro doesn’t become a GC snoozefest.
Almeida not just doubtful, he’s definitely out! Adam Yates, it’s your time to shine…
It’s a bummer for the giro, but might be good news for the Tour if Vingegaard can get the pink jersey job done even easier than previously thought. (I’ll toss some salt over my shoulder and avoid ladders to be sure I’ve not just jinxed him…)
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GC might be dull (although fingers are crossed for Bernal 2.0 having something to say about it), but the stage battles will be interesting. Pellizari, Saegert and most of the Bahrain crew, Merlier v Dylan…
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Worth remembering that the Giro rarely plays out as expected. Jonas has a better chance than most of the race going his way but I certainly wont be surprised if the GC race somehow becomes suddenly interesting.
The only time in recent years I can remember the pre race favourite winning convincingly is Tadej.
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But Tadej and Jonas are also the only riders who typically destroy everybody else and are in their prime.
Last time I remember a top tier GC guy doing the Giro was Contador (already under clenbuterol cloud).
Froome as well (under an inhaler cloud) but he was already pretty old.
Evenepoel and Roglič have both gone in as strong favourites and had their races derailed along the way. Froome, Roglič and Dumoulin all faced credible challenges from 2nd teir riders on their wins.
Having the pink jersey change hands deep into the 3rd week is the rule rather than the exception for the modern giro.
That said, Jonas is likely strong enough to overcome the general chaos of the giro
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I enjoy the Giro more than the Tour for a few reasons. I think the course is usually tougher, the weather is less predictable, there is less hype, but mostly, there always appears to be week 3 excitement in the GC.
I think this comes down to the fact that teams need to send their best to the Tour because of the eyes on it, but that means generally, you don’t get super dominant performances from one rider.
Bring it on!
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Wasn’t Evenopoel the favorite (and dropped out bc contracting COVID) the year that Roglic won, in 2023?
And I don’t know if it’s fair to say that Dumoulin was a first tier grand tour racer (contrasting to characterizing Purito Rodriguez as “second tier type who gave him a run for it) since that Giro win remains TomD’s first and only grand tour victory. I agree he had the chops and could have won more grand tours, but he didn’t enter that one as a heavy favorite who was recognized among the top tier of GC riders at the time.
I think that’s a good characterization of the Giro, apart from Pogacar’s (unsurprising) absolute dominance in 2024.
And “barring incident or accident” I never else expect similar level of dominance from Vingegaard this year.
Yes, Jonas didn’t destroy everyone at the Vuelta last year. But that’s different in that he was coming off a TdF where he was pushed to his limits and ideally would have needed more recovery, plus an altitude camp. At this point I do think a first-tier / in-his-prime favorite can win the Giro easily enough to treat it as a reasonable training buildup for the TdF. So, unlike Froome’s Giro win in 2018, where he was the third best guy for most of that race, being already at the end of typical grand tour winning age range.
You’re right, going into the race Quintana and Nibali were the favourites and Dumoulin gave them a good run for their money. And he had to stop for a poo.
The point I’m trying to make is that I’m trying not to get sad in advance of the Giro because history tells us that it’s not a very predictable race. So even though the odds point towards a dominant performance from Vignegaard, he still has to overcome the chaotic power that the race has.
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Carapas just dropped out as well. I am wondering if the presence of Jonas has made it so people who are somewhat on the fence in terms of health are less inclined to race, given that they know they’ll need to be in 105% form to contend for the win.
Jonas and his tiny arms could win GC on a handcycle at this point.
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Agreed, the Giro usually delivers close races with drama into the final week.
I just mostly think that’s a result of the fields it gets (and a bit on really hard courses that backload the climbing in the final week). Basically, this history doesn’t make me think a Jonas walkaover-snoozefest is any less likely in 2026.
I guess the other factor (and this might be part of what you’re getting at) is that when true top-tier GC guys race the Giro, they’ve aren’t optimizing their training just for the Giro, often coming in undercooked in hopes of also being able to peak for the Tour. This also affects guys I’ve listed as not-quite-top-tier-anymore (Roglic in 2023, already 33 years old) or top-tier-with-asterisk (Froome in 2018 was defending TdF champ, plus he was 32 which is already end-of-TdF-winner-age-window).
Maybe Jonas comes in undercooked, but I’m guessing he’s optimized and expects to win easily while treating the Giro as TdF training, as Pogacar did in 2024.